Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 2.737502 3.762770 5.231183 7.566737 1.134680e+01 1.753478e+01 29.169267
2025-03-02 1.604211 2.510553 4.056301 7.100961 1.356730e+01 2.851938e+01 73.743434
2025-03-09 1.145209 2.004283 3.717705 7.870127 1.966918e+01 6.135246e+01 321.570916
2025-03-16 0.839760 1.611430 3.370619 8.528392 2.824451e+01 1.440634e+02 2595.911632
2025-03-23 0.650679 1.356745 3.180228 9.648762 4.408832e+01 4.516486e+02 263295.690534
2025-03-30 0.511661 1.145103 2.970669 10.717323 6.930544e+01 1.928571e+03 NaN
2025-04-06 0.386360 0.907114 2.526744 10.366736 8.947638e+01 7.962116e+03 NaN
2025-04-13 0.292906 0.712576 2.095196 9.520144 1.056673e+02 4.143835e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 0.242875 0.618808 1.955595 10.245224 1.679758e+02 1.293902e+07 NaN
2025-04-27 0.211554 0.566955 1.943519 12.065396 3.394635e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.187519 0.527555 1.960336 14.555018 8.150337e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.162461 0.473727 1.871238 16.036147 1.764987e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.134549 0.401088 1.646244 15.494229 2.883749e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.110559 0.334123 1.404866 14.047157 3.844754e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.097636 0.304217 1.350802 15.559543 1.282879e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.086236 0.275811 1.284316 16.831792 5.642255e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.077800 0.256126 1.258326 19.205085 1.060541e+06 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.070209 0.237043 1.221469 21.490842 8.270041e+10 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.061237 0.208823 1.096771 20.463937 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.053042 0.181603 0.961172 18.369503 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.048389 0.168815 0.926627 19.890266 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.045415 0.162649 0.940108 23.976037 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.042969 0.158102 0.964727 29.794646 NaN NaN NaN